A probability model is a mathematical representation of a chance occurrence.
A model consists of a sample space, the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, and a set of probabilities assigned to each element of the sample space. These probabilities may or may not be known.
A certain model of car is sold in four factory colors: puke green, dreamy blue, and black metal. There is also the option of automatic or manual transmission.
There are six possible outcomes in the sample space:
Puke green – automatic
Dreamy blue – automatic
Black metal – automatic
Puke green – manual
Dreamy blue – manual
Black metal – manual
Some elements in the sample space may have higher probabilities than others. For instance, a customer may be more likely to choose a dreamy blue car with automatic transmission than a puke green car with manual transmission.